BYU seeking independence?

NCAA Football Betting Lines

08/20/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - There are rumblings coming out of Provo, Utah.

The chatter involves BYU's bid to become an independent in football, while moving from the Mountain West to the WAC for all other sports. The Cougars would like to fashion themselves as another Notre Dame, and with this proposed move, the university would take one step closer to completing the transformation.

The Irish are obviously the model in terms of creating an independent product that garners national attention year-round, one that comes complete with a huge television deal and their own set of BCS rules (automatic acceptance into a BCS Bowl if the team finishes in the top eight).

BYU and its non-BCS brethren have been trying to get the attention of the BCS for years, with little or no acknowledgement. While that sentiment has changed a little over the last few seasons, it is still a problem that rears its ugly head every December.

Tired of waiting, other schools have made recent moves toward rectifying the situation. Boise State has left the WAC and will join the Mountain West next season. While that seems like a somewhat lateral move, it also seemingly moved the MWC closer to gaining access to the BCS party than the WAC, especially with a lineup that was to include BYU, Utah, Boise State and TCU.

But the first domino that fell the wrong way for the Mountain West was Utah's move to a new 12-team Pac-10 (to be re-branded as the Pac-12), as BYU's main rival moved to the world of BCS riches. That couldn't have sat well on the BYU campus, nor throughout the fan base.

BYU's potential move would seem to move the Mountain West farther from the BCS pot of gold.

The league wasted no time when told of BYU's possible move, inviting both Fresno State and Nevada to join the conference. It was a necessity to do something, or everything gained by the young conference recently may have been for nothing.

MWC Commissioner Craig Thompson is trying to make a positive out of a huge negative, but I'm not sure even he believes that adding the Bulldogs and Wolf Pack, while losing the Utes and Cougars, is a good thing for the conference. Neither of those new additions has the tradition or resources of the Utah-based behemoths.

Meanwhile, there is perhaps a bigger picture for BYU, which is first and foremost a school that looks to promote the Mormon faith. In that vein, this move makes a lot of marketing sense. Reaching as many people around the country and the world is the main goal in Provo, and if the team follows the blueprint set by the Irish, independence could be a step in the right direction.

BYU however, doesn't have a national television contract like Notre Dame has with NBC. BYU-TV is already in place, but needs the recognition and reach that will only come if the Cougars set themselves free of a conference schedule peppered with lesser competition. The school's ability to put together a killer, nationally-based schedule is the key here. Notre Dame plays powerhouses on a regular basis and lands those deals because of the network exposure and money involved.

BYU doesn't generate that same type of appeal to opponents or to mainstream viewers, at least right now. SEC, Big 12 and Big Ten teams may think twice about taking on a dangerous BYU team, especially late in the season when they can see a shot at the national title within grasp. It's too risky on the field, and not beneficial enough off right now in terms of marketing or finances.

BYU would like assurances from the BCS that the program, if independent, will gain automatic access to a BCS game if it meets certain criteria, much like Notre Dame. That could be the key here to the whole thing, though after sticking its neck out and threatening to leave the Mountain West, the university might be forced to adopt a "if we build it, they will come" mentality.

If the Cougars can put together a tough schedule year-in and year-out and maintain success, the BCS will no longer be able to ignore them, regardless of any guarantees.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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MySportsbook.com week 1 NFL lines


Now that the 2008 NFL schedule is finally out, it is only matter-of-course for lines on “Week 1” to follow.  Of course MySportsbook.com is the first to churn out odds for the NFL’s inaugural week for the upcoming season.   Expect a lot of fireworks the first Thursday night of the season as the defending champion Indianapolis Colts face off against the surprise of the 2008 season, the New Orleans Saints.  These teams were ranked #1 and #3 in the NFL respectively a season ago so a high scoring affair could be in order.  As of now, the Colts will be giving 6 points to the Saints; keep in mind the Saints were one of the better road teams last season going 6-3 SU and 7-2 ATS.  The first Monday night of the season will again provide a “double feature”. Coming off a disappointing season, the Cincinnati Bengals will look to get back to playoffs and improve their public image as they take on the AFC North favorite Baltimore Ravens.  The second game features a couple of teams that haven’t had too much success recently but each could make some noise if the NFC is as weak as it was last year as the San Francisco 49ers host the Arizona Cardinals. The most interesting game of the opening week will feature the NFC champion Bears as they hit the road to take on the NFL’s top team during last year’s regular season, the San Diego Chargers.

MySportsbook.com Week 1 odds:

Saints +6 @ Colts -6

Falcons @ Vikings (pick ‘em)

Panthers @ Rams (pick ‘em)

Broncos -3.5 @ Bills +3.5

Chiefs -1 @ Texans +1

Dolphins +3 @ Redskins -3

Patriots -5 @ Jets +5

Eagles -3.5 @ Packers +3.5

Steelers -4 @ Browns +4

Titans +6 @ Jaguars -6

Bears +6 @ Chargers -6

Lions +3 @ Raiders -3

Bucs +6.5 @ Seahawks -6.5

Giants +4 @ Cowboys -4

Ravens +3 @ Bengals -3

Cardinals +3 @ 49ers -3

 Super Bowl line (2008)

NFC +6.5 vs. AFC -6.5

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