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07/27/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Can you believe that the FedEx Cup Playoffs begin four weeks from Thursday?
You probably can - you understand time at this point in your life - but the regular season in golf is almost over. Do we have a legitimate Player of the Year at this point?
No folks, we do not.
We can pare the list down to six, but the bigger story is that none of those six is named after a cartoon flake pitchman.
Tiger Woods won Player of the Year in a vote of his peers 10 times. Since 1997, three guys other than Tiger have won this award. In average years, Woods still brings home the hardware.
Now he's nowhere on the radar. Amazing what one accident that's never been fully explained can do. Woods hasn't won all year and truthfully, never threatened the top of the leaderboard. His best finishes are two fourth-place ties and they were at majors. His top-fives in majors notwithstanding, Woods doesn't belong in this race.
Of course, he could get into it very quickly.
Woods has the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational on tap in a few weeks and he's only won that seven times. The PGA Championship is the week after and Woods has enjoyed small doses of success in major championships.
So who does that leave?
Obviously major champions belong in the conversation, but two won't be a part of ours. Masters winner Phil Mickelson will be.
U.S. Open winner Graeme McDowell stated at the British Open that he would join the PGA Tour for the remainder of 2010. Even if we took into account his PGA Tour work as a non-member this year, he tied for sixth at the WGC-CA Championship and didn't finish inside the top 25 in five other starts in the U.S.
British Open champion Louis Oosthuizen was amazing in his epic win at St. Andrews, but he's not a member of the PGA Tour, so you could just as easily vote for Nicklaus, Palmer, Popeye, me or your uncle Hal.
The other choices are two-time winners this year on tour. That group is Ernie Els, Jim Furyk, Steve Stricker and Justin Rose.
We are going to bounce Furyk and Stricker. Furyk won twice early in the season, but missed the cut in two majors and his only top 10 since mid-April was a tie for 10th at the Memorial.
It's a shame Stricker gets bounced from consideration, but he hurt his shoulder around the Masters and missed almost two months. That kind of time off hurts your overall score.
Rose is an interesting case. He's probably the hottest player in golf right now, with two wins since June, but he wasn't qualified for the Masters or U.S. Open, so I have a hard time giving Player of the 3/4 Year to a guy whose early season didn't get him into the first two majors.
Els won back-to-back starts at the CA-Championship and Arnold Palmer Invitational and has a tie for 18th at Augusta. He should've won his third U.S. Open and he missed the cut at St. Andrews.
The Big Easy has made it look easy at times in 2010. Els has six top 10s on tour this year, nine top-25s and is the leader on the FedEx Cup points list.
But this vote goes to Mickelson.
Lefty won a major, so that right there gets him an extra nod. Mickelson, like Els, had a great chance at the U.S. Open, but Pebble Beach swallowed him up on Sunday.
Mickelson has missed only one cut on tour this year to Els' three, and Els' have all come in his last five starts. Els' two wins came before the calendar turned to April, but he does have a strong case.
Just not as strong as Mickelson's.
On top of the Masters win, Mickelson was the runner-up at Quail Hollow, and top five in both the U.S. Open and Memorial. But when it comes down to it, the difference is that major title.
Professional golf is defined by major championships, and always has been. A Masters victory is just as good as two very quality PGA Tour victories. With records being equal, a major is worth two tour wins and that's why the Player of the 3/4 Year is Phil Mickelson.
Subject to change in the next four weeks.
RANDOM THOUGHTS
- In case you were wondering, and you probably weren't, the reason for my column this week is that I'm on vacation next week.
- Cell phones will be allowed at the Wyndham Championship, as long as they are on silent. This won't go well.
- As I tweeted earlier in the week, Corey Pavin is meeting with Tiger at the PGA Championship about his interest in the Ryder Cup. My statement if I was Pavin would be this, "Love to have ya, bro, but if not, oh well." It's proven the Americans can win without him and if he doesn't want to be here, the message should be get yourself together and we'll see you in 2012. I've always believed that it's foolish to think a team would be better without Woods, but no sense in him coming to Wales without the right attitude.
- Movie moment - Caught a movie called "The Invention of Lying." It's written, directed by and starring Ricky Gervais, who I would laugh at even if he was reading my obituary, but this didn't work. It's a new classification of movie we'll call, "Great concept, flawed execution."
<< Kings bring in LW Ponikarovsky
Los Angeles, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Los Angeles Kings have agreed to terms
with left wing Alexei Ponikarovsky on a contract for the next season.
Ponikarovsky had spent his entire NHL career with the Maple Leafs before being
dealt to Pit
<< Former Dolphin Galbreath dead at 45
Davie, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Former Miami Dolphins offensive lineman Harry
Galbreath died Tuesday of an apparent heart ailment. He was just 45 years old.
The Dolphins organization issued a release Tuesday saying Galbreath had been
work
<< Schiavone wins Istanbul opener
Istanbul, Turkey (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It took two days, but French Open
champion Francesca Schiavone finally posted a first-round victory at the
$220,000 Istanbul Cup hardcourt tennis event.
The top-seeded Schiavone was leadin
<< Ortiz, Greisen and Moye-Moore earn weekly AFL honors
Tulsa, OK (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tampa Bay linebacker ERIC ORTIZ,
Milwaukee quarterback CHRIS GREISEN and Orlando linebacker
MARLON MOYE-MOORE have been named the JLS Ironman, Russell
Athletic Offensive Players and Riddell Defensive Player of
the
Giants S Jones released from hospital >>
East Rutherford, NJ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - New York Giants rookie safety Chad
Jones was released from the Hospital for Special Surgery Tuesday after
spending nearly a month there following a serious car accident last month.
Jones is
Petzschner, Stakhovsky fall in Umag >>
Umag, Croatia (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Seeded players Philipp Petzschner and
Sergiy Stakhovsky were a pair of first-round upset victims Tuesday at the
clay-court Croatia Open.
Belgian Olivier Rochus, a runner-up on the grass in Newport two week
EverBank, Jaguars agree to naming rights pact for stadium >>
Jacksonville, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - EverBank and the Jacksonville Jaguars
announced a five-year agreement Tuesday for the naming rights to the team's
stadium.
EverBank Field will replace the moniker of Jacksonville Municipal Stad
Bucs ink rookie WR Benn to four-year deal >>
Tampa, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Tampa Bay Buccaneers came to terms with
rookie wide receiver Arrelious Benn on a four-year contract on Tuesday.
Financial details were not disclosed.
Benn was selected in the second round -- 39th ov
In the wake of the news that the 49ers have signed receiver Michael Crabtree after an extended holdout, there has been not a hint of the dollars to be paid to Crabtree.
And since this means that his agent hasn't leaked the numbers, it means that his agent feels no specific motivation to do so.
Possibly because his agent isn't all that thrilled to have his name on the deal.
So the numbers will come from sources other than Crabtree's agent. And we've gotten our mitts into them.
Per a league source, Crabtree has signed a six-year, $32 million contract. (The total includes guaranteed money, base salaries, and the one-time incentive based on achieving minimum playing time.)
The deal also includes $17 million in guaranteed money.
As reported elsewhere, the deal can void to five years based on performance triggers, wiping out a final year base salary of $4 million. But they won't be easily reached.
The source tells us that, in his first four seasons (including 2009), Crabtree must either qualify for two Pro Bowls, or he must qualify for one Pro Bowl in one year and he must participate in 80 percent of the offensive snaps in a separate year in which the team makes the playoffs.
In other words, if in 2010 he qualifies for the Pro Bowl and the team makes the playoffs and he participates in 80 percent of the snaps, he'll still need to make it to the Pro Bowl or achieve the 80-percent/playoffs in another season.
Since the chances of Crabtree making the Pro Bowl or participating in 80 percent of the offensive snaps this year is roughly zero percent, he'll have three years to get it done.
And it won't be easy. Frankly, he'll be hard pressed to make it to one Pro Bowl in three years with the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith, the other Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks, DeSean Jackson, Johnny Knox, Percy Harvin, Greg Jennings, Roddy White, T.J. Houshmandzadeh in the same conference for sportsbook betting.
So, by all appearances, it's a six-year deal. And at $17 million in guaranteed money, the per-year guarantee is a tepid $2.83 million per year.
There's another problem with the deal -- it has no mid-tier incentive package. Instead, the additional $8 million that Crabtree can earn (pushing the max value to six years, $40 million) requires the kind of unrealistic, mega-star performances that no rookie is likely to ever achieve.
So while the contract paid to Packers defensive tackle B.J. Raji covers five years and pays $22.5 million, he has the ability (if he's a solid player) to make up the difference between his base deal and Crabtree's five-year, $28 million haul via the mid-tier incentive package in Raji's deal.
And unless Crabtree meets the performance thresholds necessary to void the sixth year, he'll be stuck under contract for another year at a base salary of only $4 million.
There's one other area of concern with the deal. Crabtree, per the source, received no option bonus. Instead, he has significant money tied to a fairly new device known as a "discretionary salary advance," which unlike an opition bonus is subject to forfeiture if Crabtree decides in a year or two that he wants to hold out for a better deal. (We're also told that the 49ers have included language that would make certain escalators subject to forfeiture, too.)
Meanwhile, the deal falls well short of the mark for which Crabtree and agent Eugene Parker were aiming -- the five-year, $38.25 million contract paid by the Raiders to receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey, the seventh overall pick in the draft.
Even if Crabtree successfully voids the final year, he'll make more than $2 million per year less on average than Heyward-Bey.
Thus, as we explained earlier in the day, this is a deal that Crabtree could have done in July, which would have given him a much better chance of making a contribution to the 49ers during his rookie year.
So while the final outcome can be described as win-win, the broader view suggests that it's really a lose-lose situation.
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MySportsbook.com: New College Football Clock Rules Examined
Coaches and bettors alike are desperate to make sense of the new time-keeping rules on the NCAA gridiron. One of the big stories to come out of the Ohio State-Texas clash last weekend was Texas coach Mack Brown's criticism of the NCAA's new clock rules that are intended to shorten the duration of college football games, therefore affecting college football betting.
"They scored with six minutes left and the game was over before we had a chance to do anything," Brown told ESPN.com. "I really hope whoever made these changes will go back and look them over."
Sure, it might be sour grapes; the Buckeyes thoroughly trounced the defending national champion Longhorns 24-7. However, Brown isn't alone in giving the changes their due thought. Bettors are also wondering about them, albeit for a completely different reason. Most experts agree that the changes will result in games being shortened by anywhere from 10 to 20 plays. The obvious consequence is lower scores, with more time rolling off the clock during changes of possession. (The Ohio State-Texas game flew well under the total of 52.)
According to research at the online sportsbook MySportsbook.com, more than 18 plays a game disappeared last weekend into thin air. That's a 10-percent reduction. In 2005, a typical game had 168.58 plays. For 2007 already, it's down to 150.26.
As a result, teams combined to gain an average of about 100 fewer yards a game last weekend versus the 2005 openers. Scoring was also down by about 4.5 points (attention Las Vegas sports lines).
Of course, oddsmakers were able to adjust to the changes before the season started. Proof of that came as the over went a balanced 8-9 at My Sportsbook on Saturday.
Other angles to consider:A shorter game should theoretically result in shorter lines. Whereas Team A might have been a 14-point favorite in a 168-play game (last year), if there are 10 percent less snaps in 2007, the line should also be reduced by 10 percent (to 13 or 12.5). Of course, this is an over-simplification of the matter, but something to keep in mind.
Less possessions means a better chance the game will be decided by three or seven points. For example, what might have been a 20-10 final score in 2005 may end at
17-10 in 2007. Granted, a 24-17 game last year might end at 21-17 these days, but the former - a three- or seven-point advantage being preserved as opposed to created - is the most likely scenario.
*UPDATE* - Sept. 25, 2007
New Clock Rules Boon for online bookmakers
By adjusting the time-keeping rules to shorten the duration of college football games, the NCAA hoped to make its product more enjoyable for the fans. While the NCAA's success in this regard is still up for debate, bookmakers couldn't be happier with the results.
"We are seeing a massive jump in college football betting," noted the MySportsbook.com management team. "With all the early Saturday games (12 a.m. ET) ending before the second wave begins (3:30 p.m. ET) - something that didn't always happen before the changes - bettors are now able to re-invest their winnings from the morning session in the afternoon games."
While not all bettors will choose to roll over their winnings, it doesn't take much for an impact to be seen on the bottom line. "Not all of the millions of dollars in morning payouts get re-bet. In fact, it's probably only 10 to 20 percent," noted the sportsbook management team. "Still, the increased football betting lines window will create a ton of growth for us over the course of the season."
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