Gaming: Go with underdogs in Big East play

NCAA Football Betting Lines

08/03/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - I wrote last week how the betting the favorite in Mountain West Conference league play has won at a 56% clip since the '07 season. By contrast, Big East favorites have been on the losing end every year since '06.

In fact, not a single team has compiled a combined above-.500 record over the last three seasons, while the overall total stands at 35-48 (42%). West Virginia has been the biggest money-loser of the bunch with a 6-12 mark (33%).

On the bright side, the league has fared well in out-of-conference play with an 88-65-1 ATS record since the start of the '06 season. Last year, the eight teams went 22-14 ATS (61%), including a 12-8 mark against the other five Football Bowl Subdivision conferences. Surprisingly, Louisville has the top record in the league over the last two years at 6-2.

Time now to take a team-by-team look at the league with predicted SU overall and conference records for those wagering on over/unders for total victories.

8) LOUISVILLE - The Cardinals went 4-7 ATS for the third straight season. They are 2-12 ATS in conference play over the last two campaigns.

Offense - Two years ago the Cardinals ranked second in Big East play in total offense but were seventh in scoring. Last season, they were seventh in both categories. There's not much hope for this offense heading into the new season, but one bright spot was the hiring of former UNLV head coach Mike Sanford as the team's new offensive coordinator.

Defense - It will be difficult for the defense to improve without its top four tacklers from a season ago. However, new head coach Charlie Strong was the mastermind behind Florida's outstanding defense, and the club did pick up a pair of youngsters from USC and Michigan in the offseason.

Prediction - Louisville will take baby steps this year in its climb back to respectability, so don't be surprised if the Cardinals improve on their 4-7 ATS mark from a season ago. (3-9, 1-6)

7) SYRACUSE - The Orange went 6-5 ATS in '09, but just 3-5 in their final eight games. The team is 5-1 as a home favorite over the last four years.

Offense - The offense, which jumped over the 20 ppg mark for the first time since '04, might be without 1,000-yard rusher Delone Carter, who is currently suspended from school. The Orange will also have a new starting quarterback and go-to wide receiver, so look for a slight regression in the scoring department.

Defense - Ten starters return to a defense that allowed just 3.0 yards per carry and 337 total yards per game. Still, the secondary allowed opposing quarterbacks to nail 65% of their passes, even with consistent pressure from the front seven (35 sacks).

Prediction - Look for a quick 0-2 SU and ATS start with games at Akron and Washington. (3-9, 1-6)

6) USF - The Bulls were 6-5 ATS in '09. They are only 4-9 ATS as road favorites over the last three seasons.

Offense - After finishing first in league play in scoring three years ago, the Bulls dropped to the seventh spot in '08 and remained there in '09. Ten starters return, but that was the case two years ago and the team averaged fewer than 20 ppg in league play.

Defense - Five starters come back to Tampa, and the last time that happened, the Bulls allowed 11.5 ppg more than the year before. Six of their top seven tacklers from '09 are gone, including four players that combined for 44 tackles for loss.

Prediction - USF is extremely overrated, so cash in by betting against Skip Holtz's squad throughout the season. (6-6, 3-4)

5) RUTGERS - The Scarlet Knights went 6-5 ATS last year. They are 9-2 ATS as road underdogs in their last 11 games and 15-6 ATS overall on the road over the last four years

Offense - Despite a 9-4 record, Rutgers ranked last in Big East play in total offense and sacks allowed. Quarterback Tom Savage found the going rough in the second half of the year, finishing with a 6-6 touchdown/interception ratio in his final six games after an 8-1 mark in the first seven. Improvement is expected as he gets more comfortable his sophomore season.

Defense - The Scarlet Knights led the country in tackles for loss and fumbles recovered last year partly due to their weak schedule. It's important to note that even though just three teams in the entire country earned more sacks, the Knights still finished fifth in league play in that department. The defense heads into this year without its top four tacklers, so look for the opposition to average over 20 ppg.

Prediction - Rutgers ended last year a +20 in turnover differential. The club won't be as fortunate this season, so expect a below .500 ATS record. (8-4, 4-3)

4) CONNECTICUT - The Huskies were an amazing 10-2 ATS last season and 7-1 to the over in their last eight. They are 9-2 ATS as home underdogs over the last five years.

Offense - Connecticut exploded on offense last year averaging over 30 ppg for the first time since '04. This year's squad could reproduce that number with the return of eight starters, including four from one of the most underrated offensive lines in the country

Defense - The defense fell apart the second half of last year after the tragic death of Jasper Howard, and the secondary still looks to be the weak link heading into 2010. Nevertheless, the front seven should be much improved after allowing 4.6 ypc in Big East play last year.

Prediction - With higher expectations, Connecticut will suffer a four-game ATS drop-off from 10-2 to 6-6. (8-4, 4-3)

3) WEST VIRGINIA - The Mountaineers went 5-7 ATS last year. They are 3-8 ATS as home favorites the last two seasons.

Offense - Two consecutive fourth-place ppg finishes inside conference play have stifled the club in the post-Rich Rodriguez era, and this season's offense looks very similar to last year's with two notable exceptions: the offensive line is more experienced and a new quarterback will be under center. Look for another mid-pack finish in 2010

Defense - West Virginia's defense has allowed between 17 and 22 ppg each of the last six years, so after giving up 21.7 ppg a year ago, expect the number to decrease with the return of seven of the top eight tacklers.

Prediction - Continue to bet against the Mountaineers when they are favored at home, especially in Big East play. (8-4, 4-3)

2) PITTSBURGH - The Panthers went 8-4 ATS last season. They are 7-2 ATS as road underdogs over the last three years.

Offense - Pittsburgh averaged 32.1 ppg last season, its highest total since 1981. Freshman running back Dion Lewis had a lot to do with that figure, rushing for 1,799 yards and 17 touchdowns. However, those numbers came with an experienced offensive line, one that loses all three interior starters. In addition, a replacement for Bill Stull and his 65% completion rate must be found.

Defense - Just as the interior of the offensive line is in need of a makeover, both defensive linemen have to be replaced. Add in the fact both cornerbacks have departed, and it is doubtful the Panthers will be number one in league play in scoring and total defense for a second straight season.

Prediction - This year's schedule is more demanding so expect a decline from last year's 8-4 ATS record. (7-5, 5-2)

1) CINCINNATI - The Bearcats finished 5-7 ATS, going 0-5 in their final five games. They are 8-14 ATS off a SU win over the last two years.

Offense - Even with the loss of quarterback Tony Pike and wide receiver Mardy Gilyard, the Cincinnati offense is still the best in the conference. Zach Collaros (4-0 as a starter with an 8-1 touchdown/interception ratio in those contests) could even outdo his predecessor, while the running game will be in much better shape with Collaros' running ability.

Defense - Cincinnati returns only five defensive starters but last year the team brought back just one and that unit allowed only three ppg more than the season before. The Bearcats return to a 4-3 defense, the package used in '07 and '08 when they allowed just 114 rushing ypg each season.

Prediction - Many prognosticators are not expecting Cincinnati to duplicate last year's success, so money might be able to be made betting on the Bearcats, particularly in conference play. (9-3, 6-1)